Vision Pro is not the iPhone
Comparing Vision Pro to the iPhone is the exact wrong frame.
The iPhone showed up to replace, refine and combine multiple product categories we already knew and depended on.
The much better comparison, paradigmatically and economically, is the original Macintosh. Which was even more expensive than Vision Pro, broke new ground in popular HCI, and took time to become a mass-market phenomenon.
The role of Vision Pro is to establish a beach head for developing software that is not confined to a two dimensional plane.
Making software that you can inhabit, that surrounds you, that you can directly manipulate in a pseudo-tactile fashion.
This is NOT an overnight thing. The iPhone delivered overnight value because so much of the mobile problem space was well defined.
But what amounts to holographic software? all new frontier.
So the historical parallels for Vision Pro aren’t going to be the early days of the App Store, at least not exactly.
Think the early days of desktop computing, especially in the age of the CD-ROM. Pushing the boundaries of what all this extra bandwidth can do. There will be short lived curiosities, like Encarta and digital atlases. There will be cult phenomena, like Myst.
And there will be mainline permanent evolutions of how we accomplish work, like CAD, spreadsheets, desktop publishing.
The biggest complication to making a historical comparison is the internet. Broadband will exist from day one for Vision Pro. The early days of desktop computing had nothing like this.
The biggest risk to Apple’s Vision Pro ambitions is that unlike the early Macintosh, their platform control strategy means that they will not let developers co-create the larger experience of using the device. The development surface is much more narrowly circumscribed than the original Macintosh, perhaps to the detriment of this new frontier.
Happy pre-order day.
Learn more about the move to Spatial Computing
Crash course: Vision Pro for Devs (Part 1)
This is a whole new approach to computing productivity. There are important considerations that didn't apply to fixed, flat screens in the hand or on the desk.
Vision Pro is not the iPhone
The appropriate historical parallel is the early days of the Macintosh and CD-ROMs. Except... there's more internet in the mix.
Economics of Vision Pro Development
Unlike previous entries to the space of augmented or virtual reality, Vision Pro ships with a raft of libraries and frameworks for every sort of computing productivity application. Not to mention millions of developers who already know how to use them.
Why 'Spatial Computing'
Apple put us on notice last year that we're on the threshold of a new computing paradigm. The era of ostrich malarkey is at an end.
Leviathan Wakes: the case for Apple's Vision Pro
After years of quiet work beneath the surface, Apple's AR project is upon us, barely at the border of the technologically possible. It's our best chance yet to explore a future beyond fixed displays.